Prediction markets explained
Prediction markets turn beliefs into prices. Understanding how that works is the foundation for using Polymarket, Kalshi, and tools like Polifly.
Prices as probabilities
A share at $0.35 often implies roughly 35% chance—before fees and liquidity frictions.
Your edge is having a better probability estimate than the market after costs.
Where AI helps
Polifly compresses research time and structures your notes so you can compare implied odds to your model.
Related guides
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Educational software only. Not financial advice. Markets involve risk of loss.